While recently listening to NPR radio I heard a most uncomfortable thing: for the first time since WWII, the amount of jobs created in the last economic expansion has been eclipsed by the amount of job losses in the current economic contraction. In simpler terms, all the jobs created when things were good (est. 2002 - 2007) are now gone. Ouch!
That is not good. What that says to me is that economic growth, in North America, is cooling. From a cyclical perspective, America is in the mature stage of its growth cycle. Growth will be scarce and the future growth will net to zero (expansions minus contractions).
In economics, Kondratief and Elliot both expressed economic growth as a series of waves. In fact, wave theory, of which I am a firm believer in, is a great way of understanding, explaining and predicting economic performance. Such a statistics as this jobs figure is a clear indicator that the US economy is in a major transition. Note that I did not say the global economy.
For all the retoric that may come out of Washington, the US is clearly a nation in transition. The problem for the future is that US policy is going to be out of step with US reality. This is going to create lots of problems for those banking on the continuance of past history ( yes mutual fund holders, I am talking to you) .
If you are looking for investment guidance for your portfolio look no further than the Doors. Just remember what Jim Morrison said, "the future's uncertain and the end is always near". Beware.
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